I just really think the whole tech industry is going to implode soon

Submitted by flabberghaster in yourpersonalblog

IDK, i've been expecting a collapse of the tech industry for over ten years, but the way every single tech company has gone HOG WILD on gen AI stuff despite no one yet finding a use for gen AI that anyone wants, or that works, seems to me like the industry has no direction. It feels like a huge hail mary.

Part of the mania, I think, is that the big hyperscalers (Google, Amazon, Microsoft) are trying to sell businesses that weren't using The Cloud™ before, on using The Cloud™ to Unlock Their AI Potential. Then, once they're using The Cloud™, they can try to sell them other cloud services; so even if Gen AI doesn't go anywhere, at least you got a bunch of people locked in to your cloud ecosystem if you're Google, Amazon or Microsoft.

But I also think about the fact that OpenAI is a massive money pit, almost no end user wants to use GenAI, and the businesses that are springing up to be frontends around Chat GPT mostly lose money, and even if they didn't, they can only operate because the Gen AI stuff is being subsidized for them. If they had to pay what it costs to run Chat GPT, there'd be no point.

Normally, when there's a mania like this in the tech industry you can be like, well that's ludicrous but as long as I stay away from it, I shouldn't be too affected. But with Gen AI, ALL of the big tech companies are going after it hard. Investing billions into it, structuring their near and medium term business strategies around it. If it goes bust, a lot of people are going to be left holding the bag.

And I don't know what comes after.

That said, I've also said I've been predicting a collapse for at least 10 years. What's that old joke? Marxists have predicted 7 of the last 3 global recessions. So maybe I'm a doomer for no reason. But things feel off right now.

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underscores wrote

I'm not sure when it'll collapse, but it's definitely a giant bubble. Between the LLMs, the massive enshitification the last couple years with almost every company trying to squeeze their users and business partners at the same time, and now most of their leaders openly aligning with fascists, it's gotten really bad really fast. The fact that OpenAI said they were loosing money on their $200/month plan shows they have no clue what they're doing, and are probably just hoping it improves into AGI so they can have automated slavery.

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hollyhoppet wrote

for what it's worth, early covid and about three years years after the start covid were kind of minor collapses, at least for some subsections of the industry

i've also started to think maybe one of the things that prevents actual collapse is the yearly mass layoffs. the financial distress of what would be a collapse is instead passed onto laborers, so we're basically having a collapse every year while businesses cruise above that with great end-of-fiscal-year numbers since they cut so much staff.

which... sucks. a big whole lot lmao

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devtesla wrote

The boom-bust cycle of tech is well known, and the AI one we're going through is one of the most clearly prepared for I've ever seen. Microsoft in particular is set to cash out once the bust goes through, the terms of their investment in OpenAI is such that when they bust they essentially get the whole company with no fuss. Meta is the only company that seems to be hugely exposed to failure once the bust happens (massive investment but little to show for it, the rest of their company is hurting very badly) but they're the only company I can see actually being hurt. And I'd be surprised if they actually disappear, I'm sad to say.

The only thing that could actually hurt these companies is if Chinese technology is allowed to flow freely into the US, and the government is going to step in before that happens. This will fuck over everyone but major tech companies.

I will always wish for consequences, but I'm not expecting them this time.

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emma wrote

i think you're wrong about this. anyway, time to read the news.

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