Submitted by flabberghaster in just_post

I just don't think bluesky is going to last, it's vulnerable to the same thing that made everyone jump to it from twitter. They say it's federated but it only kind of is, mostly it's one big instance just like twitter, controlled by one company that seem to have a pretty unclear business model.

One day they're going to realize they need to make money, but they have no real way to. It will then be sold, or be shut down.

Mastodon is a bit less vulnerable to that, being actually decentralized. On the other hand there are the well known reasons people don't care for mastodon and they're all fair.

I just think mastodon has a better chance of lasting than bluesky.

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twovests wrote (edited )

one company that seem to have a pretty unclear business model.

The business model is to profit off of making Bitcoin mainstream. It's literally that.

Every single one of Jack Dorsey's public endeavors have been pointed towards making Bitcoin (Lightning) a thing. The only reason BlueSky isn't loudly pro-Bitcoin is because the people at BlueSky know that most people see cryptoshit as a toxic scam.

The whole Bluesky team are huge cryptocoin bros and they've been excited about Bitcoin Lightning ever since Jack Dorsey was asked to join on kicking the network off.

For the past four years, Jack Dorsey has been the main character of Bitcoin Lightning. He sees himself as a Jesus type person and I am not joking or exaggerating.

Technologically: The Lightning network works basically like Venmo or Paypal: Give your Bitcoins to a big wallet which does formal transfers infrequently. You're basically splitting the time+btc costs of one transaction by combining it with many others, so long as you trust the Lightning node you're using.

The profit plan is this:

  1. Make BlueSky big and ubiquitous

  2. Add Bitcoin integration once everyone's there, and make it fast and easy.

  3. Nobody's going to leave over it lol

  4. People using Bitcoin = Bitcoin costs more = Jack Dorsey becomes rich

Supporting evidence:

  1. Jack Dorsey already said he's going to integrate Lightning into BlueSky .

  2. Renaming Square to Block because blockchain, and then...

  3. ... Adding Bitcoin Lightning to Cash App (Block)

    • Do you know anyone who left Cash App (or Venmo) because they introduced Bitcoin? No right?
  4. Spiral lol, Tbd lol, etc.

  5. Block owns ~8000 BTC.

  6. Jack Dorsey owns an undisclosed (but likely huge) amount of Bitcoin.

    • His net worth is ~$4B and Bitcoin is worth ~$40K. If just 1% of his networth is BTC, then he owns 1M BTC, which is about 5% of all the Bitcoins.

    • Yes, this is stupid

TLDR: All signs point to Bitcoin for Bluesky. i also agree it looks like people are moving to bluesky but i sure hope it doesn't take off

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nitori wrote

They say it's federated but it only kind of is, mostly it's one big instance just like twitter, controlled by one company that seem to have a pretty unclear business model.

I'm not a Bluesky simp but this is the case with Mastodon too lol

Federation is just shit. Tbh I've been questioning recently whether to continue microblogging with my Mima-sama identity at my Misskey home at makai.chaotic.ninja... I might as well just do my microblogging here in jstpst. :P

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flabberghaster OP wrote

It's true that it's hard to get a new instance to be picked up by others and vice versa, but there are conduits (or I forget what they're called) that can help, and mastodon does have more than one mainstream instance. Bluesky is just one instance.

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hollyhoppet wrote

we are but roving clans fated to drift from one imperfect social space to the next

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