So, up front: All the game / probability / measure theory tells me I'll lose money gambling. All the street smarts tells me the house has better mathematicians than me, and if I had better knowledge of the game than they did, they'd figure that out and shut me out before I put a dent in their wallet.

But most people either (1) don't have that knowledge integrated into their actions, or (2) have a nonlinear cost function w.r.t. money they gain and lose.

Now... I love doing things like opening new bank accounts for $400 or opening new credit cards for $300. People call this "churning" or "beer money".

Now, I'm seeing promos like "Bet $5, get $200 in bonus bets."

For instance, if there are 50/50 odds with 49% payouts, that's (205) / (1/2) * 0.49 - 5 = $200 expected profit. Pretty nice.

I'm assuming the point is that DraftKings et al will lose money on that in the short run, but gain money by getting gamblers in the door, addicted to the flashing lights.

I'm not worried at all that I will become addicted to gambling. To me, this looks like a good way to make a quick buck, while taking money away from an evil organization.

TLDR: "Bet $5 get $200 in free bets" seems like a good deal if I don't place any bets after. Am I missing a catch?

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twovests OP wrote on February 10, 2025 at 3:10 PM

#23,930

By "nonlinear cost function", I mean scenarios where the dollars gained are worth more than those lost, or scenarios with quantifiable factors other than dollars gained and lost.

I've gambled four times in my life under a nonlinear cost function:

Need 4 Pee: Bladder 'bout to blast, I hid myself away into a Boston Bodega, begging for the bathroom. "For customers only," said the sign, and the cheapest product was a $2 scratch off. I paid, peed, and knew my winnings: One trip to the bathroom. This was nonlinear because I was going to pee.
Not going to finish that? Years ago, I went to a casino with a friend, and having had never used the machines before, I wanted to try them out. I had $40. The experience was underwhelming, but someone had left cash in the machine and I win on my first bet. I ended up coming out with $100. This was nonlinear because (1) I was paying for the novel experience, and (2) I ended up getting free money.
Orange lining: This most recent election, I put some money on Trump. The thinking was this would hedge against layoffs a bit, and give me something to look forward to even in the worst case. I didn't put in a lot, maybe I should have? This was nonlinear because I expected dollars to be worth less if Trump won, and also for emotional reasons.
The 401K account counts too: Putting money into investment account is also gambling. But that employer match and tax incentive makes it nonlinear, even if you believe the economy is just a bubble.

devtesla wrote on February 10, 2025 at 4:07 PM

#23,932

This feels like the first chapter of a cyberpunk novel. It should be easy money.... but then you're in too deep and the digital mafia is after you....

twovests OP wrote on February 10, 2025 at 4:10 PM

#23,933

Replying to devtesla (#23,932)

I mean, I think that's the idea right? First step is you put in a tiny fee, you see a big $200 number, and then you're hooked.

flabberghaster wrote on February 10, 2025 at 4:40 PM

#23,934

My understanding is you don't get actually paid out until you wager a certain amount that's much much higher. Like you bet five dollars and get two hundred, but to be eligible you have to bet like a thousand dollars total.

That's what they said on a podcast, or what I took from what that podcast.

Not an expert.

rain wrote on February 10, 2025 at 4:40 PM

#23,935

Now you have me seriously thinking about signing go to a gambling site with the intent of taking their promo and running - mostly to write up the experience. But I just had a $250 car repair bill I need to pay for. Maybe this is the way to do it lol

rain wrote on February 10, 2025 at 4:48 PM

#23,936

Replying to flabberghaster (#23,934)

I was figuring something like this would be the case. I wonder if I could find paired hedge bets that would let me get at least a hundred out of those bets.

If I try there are a few self imposed rules…

Rule 1) no extra money loaded - no matter what it looks like on paper if I can’t do it solely off of the initial deposit then the whole thing needs to be abandoned.

Rule 2) Just as soon as I can get the money out, pull it and never use their site again

What do y’all think, should I try? Fair disclosure: even if everyone says yes I may decide not to

hollyhoppet wrote on February 10, 2025 at 9:36 PM (edited on February 10, 2025 at 9:37 PM)

#23,939

This is literally how professional gamblers do their thing lol. One of the strategies is to drift from "free money" deal to "free money" deal and take advantage of it without falling for the addiction trap. The thing is you only get those promos once per place. If you're going to do it read the terms of service very carefully to make sure there isn't a catch.

flabberghaster wrote on February 11, 2025 at 12:56 AM

#23,941

Replying to rain (#23,936)

I think you should not give these casinos one red cent, you're not gonna beat the house. Everyone who gambles thinks they might, and if they were right, there would be no casinos.

If you gamble, go in expecting to lose. If you're doing it for fun, then have fun. But you're giving money to some of the worst and most rapaciously exploitative businesses in America.

rain wrote on February 11, 2025 at 3:24 AM

#23,945

Replying to flabberghaster (#23,941)

I upvoted you because in general I agree.

If I did do it, it would be with the intent of doing a write up on the experience. Probably won’t because I have more than enough on my plate right now, but if I had the extra free time it would make an interesting post.