Submitted by twovests in vote_satan
For starters, I'm using "MAGA" to refer to this current fascist movement. Terms like "conservative" and "republican" aren't quite right, "far-right" and "fascist" are correct, but "MAGA" is most specific. I think "MAGA" will be a term that bears out in history, much like "nazi" was used to refer to Hitler's "national socialist" movement.
All the leading predictors are based on polls and fundamentals, which place this at a dead-heat.
But I think the predictions are flawed:
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The polls are practically worthless,
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The polls in 2020 predicted ~90% Biden, and that ended up close, but most importantly,
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There are a lot of new factors that I can't imagine being accurately modeled.
Specifically, there are some pretty big new factors:
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The MAGA Supreme Court is already actively interfering in the election, even worse than it did in 2000 after the election,
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Brazen acts of voter fraud and intimidation have already been occurring across the country, and they have been in 2020. Eight years of "the Dems are stealing the vote" has created the coordinated voter-fraud movement we need.
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The GOP has gotten increasingly good at voter disenfranchisement! They're really, really good at it,
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Republicans are indeed voting early and by-mail this election, and aren't dying in the same mass numbers as they did in 2020. Finally,
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Elon Musk paid $44b for Twitter for this election. For all the "masterful gambit sires" of the world, he created a mainstream successful nazi site for nazis.
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The uncommitted protest vote has voted in numbers that can reasonably be expected to lose Harris the swing states.
I don't think 538 or whoever can really model any of these factors. If their models which don't account for this say 50-50, then I really think that points to a Trump win. The only other numeric factor are the betting markets, and the talk that the stock markets are anticipating a Trump presidency.
I don't have a huge amount of certainty in this -- if I did, I'd bet a lot of money -- and I do hope I'm wrong. But my prediction is on Donald Trump winning this election.